Mainland Chinese Truck Market Remains Bearish with Supply Chain Shocks




Mainland Chinese medium- and hefty-obligation vans (MHDTs) have
entered a bear market considering that mid-2021. Despite the fact that the market staged a
slight restoration following the easing of power shortages and
injection of plan stimulus from late last 12 months, unpredicted
headwinds brought by the Russia-Ukraine disaster and domestic Omicron
outbreak plunged the marketplace back into weak point in the 2nd
quarter of 2022. Amid pandemic-induced lockdowns in Jilin and
Shanghai, generation of MHDT hit the lowest reading for April about
a 10 years. In our May possibly forecast, we downgraded the mainland Chinese
MHDT generation for 2022 by 5% to 1.13 million units, a drop of
23% in comparison with 2021.

Exterior geopolitical tensions drive up producer charges

As uncooked resources stand for 20-30% of the price of creation for
hefty vehicles, raw material expenses partly determine the
profitability of truck producers. Owing to the international economic
restoration from the COVID-19 scare, commodity prices have
gone through an upcycle due to the fact late 2020. The rally obtained extra steam
in the 1st quarter of 2022 with the outbreak of the
Russia-Ukraine war. Specifically, the cold-rolled metal price that
accounts for about 60% of the complete uncooked substance prices for a large
truck surged by 3% in March 2022 from the stage of January,
expanding the advancement to much more than 40% as in comparison to the similar
time period of 2020. Also, the diesel cost elevated by 15% and passed the
RMB9,000 per metric ton mark by way of January-March 2022. In
distinction, the movement of selling selling prices for significant vans were being
somewhat flat under slack demand from customers, as fuel rate inflation elevated
the operating charges although oversupplied trucking constrained freight
fee progress. As a outcome, the truck producers’ purchasing and
offering price ranges logged major differentiation, in spite of an
increase in selling price of CN6-degree products. This kind of weak inflation
move-as a result of impact has made truck makers to bear the brunt of the
profit margin squeeze particularly following dumping of CN5-amount trucks.
With the Russia-Ukraine disaster envisioned to deepen into 2023,
brief-time period truck generation is as a result lower by all around 25,000 units
in the May outlook.

Inner pandemic resurgences exacerbate provide chain

The Omicron wave had triggered massive lockdowns in Jilin
Province (March 11-April 28), Shenzhen Metropolis (March 14-20), and
Shanghai City (March 28-May perhaps 31) considering the fact that March 2022, ensuing in
prevalent business disruptions and logistics snarls. Though
there are couple MHDT producers in the epicenters of the pandemic,
Changchun City and Shanghai Metropolis host about 40 major offer bases
serving main components to mainstream products masking over 90% of
truck generation. Starting off from mid-April, FAW Jiefang’s Changchun
plant and most suppliers managed to resume do the job in the shut-loop
system, but labor shortages less than the mobility manage disabled
them to functionality at regular potential. Meanwhile, demanding
containment measures such as website traffic limitations, nucleic acid
check and quarantine needs, as properly as closure of toll
stations pent up street freight desire and brought on wider repercussions
of component shortages, which in turn dampening truck output.
Beneath the circumstances, the complete reduction of MHDT output in the
second quarter is estimated to reach 100,000 models. With ramping up
attempts to easy logistics and restore organization, the function
resumption fee of enterprises over specified sizing in Shanghai
City enhanced to 96% by mid-June and will completely recover from July.
Coupled with expansionary policies and ample ability
reserves, these could assist MHDT output to decide up and offset
the pandemic-induced reduction in the second 50 %.

A even more downgrade to outlook is underneath evaluation, as the
government’s reliance on the “dynamic zero-COVID” approach and
cash outflows led by the Fed’s tightened cycle are possible to
weaken organization sentiment and subdue demand recovery. On the other
hand, the rebuilding of supplier inventories of CN6-stage MHDTs
climbed from 280,000 models in early this year to 380,000 models by
April, way higher than the common fees of 150,000-170,000 models.
Moreover, there ended up additional than 70,000 models CN5-stage new
vehicles (bought as employed vehicles) remaining in the market, exacerbating
de-stocking pressures.


Posted 06 July 2022 by Cassie Liu, Automotive Analyst, IHS Markit&#13


This posting was printed by S&P International Mobility and not by S&P Worldwide Rankings, which is a separately managed division of S&P International.


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